Photo courtesy Cummins.com The exterior of Cummins Inc.’s Jamestown Engine Plant is pictured. The Jamestown plant began full production of Cummins’ X15N engine in September.

Cummins Inc. officials are projecting a revenue decrease of between 2% and 3% in 2025 as company officials plan for a decrease in demand in the North American on-highway truck market.

The company’s fourth quarter revenues of $8.4 billion decreased 1% from the same quarter in 2023. Sales in North America were flat while international revenues decreased 3%. Fourth quarter net income was $418 million compared to a net loss of $1.4 billion in 2023.

Full year 2024 revenues of $34.1 billion were flat to 2023. Sales in North America increased 1% and international revenues decreased 1% compared to 2023. EBITDA in 2024 was $6.3 billion, or 18.6% of sales, compared to $3.0 billion, or 8.9% of sales, a year ago.Based on its current forecast, Cummins projects full year 2025 revenue to be in the range of down 2% to up 3%, and EBITDA to be in the range of 16.2% and 17.2% of sales.

“In 2025, we anticipate that demand will be slightly weaker in the North America on-highway truck markets, particularly in the first half of the year, but offset by strength in other key markets. Despite a relatively flat revenue forecast and relative weakness in the key North America truck markets, we expect to improve profitability and cash flow. Cummins remains well-positioned to deliver strong financial performance, invest in future growth and return cash to shareholders,” said Jennifer Rumsey, Cummins chairwoman and CEO,..

The North American truck market weakness isn’t dimming the company’s excitement over its HELM engine platforms that were introduced in 2024. Applied across Cummins’ B, X10 and X15-series engine portfolios, the HELM platforms provide customers with the option to choose the fuel type – either advanced diesel or alternate fuels like natural gas and hydrogen – that best suits their business needs and offers the power customers expect – while also reducing emissions.

Rumsey said the company is now working to sell the new Jamestown-made engine, engaging with many of North America’s heavy-duty fleet owners. How much the new engine impacts Cummins’ bottom line is somewhat out of the company’s hands, but Rumsey said initial feedback is good.

“The beauty of the HELM platform is it’s got that fuel flexibility,” Rumsey said during a conference call Tuesday with investor analysts. “And so the reality is we’re still going to sell a lot of the diesel version of that, and it will be a higher efficiency version, which means lower CO2 and lower fuel costs for our customers. We’ve set a goal of getting to 8% on the natural gas version of that. We’re starting to see customers adopt. PACCAR has launched it. Daimler Trucks will launch that 15-liter natural gas this year. Fleets are testing it. I was with a big customer last week.

They’re finishing their field testing. They feel good about the product, and they’re looking to start to increase penetration, but it really depends on diesel fuel prices and regulation and customer CO2 goals. And so it’s hard to give specific numbers on the rate of natural gas or hydrogen adoption because of that dependency on infrastructure cost and regulation.”

Fourth quarter results include a hit of $312 million as Cummins reorganized its Accelera business, while the fourth quarter of 2023 included payment of a $2 billion settlement agreement with the federal government and California to settle claims that Cummins installed emissions defeat devices in its engines.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in the fourth quarter were $1.0 billion, or 12.1% of sales, compared to a loss of $878 million, or negative 10.3% of sales, a year ago. EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2023 included the costs noted above.

To summarize, we delivered record sales and profitability in 2024, including strong results in the second half of the year even as demand in the North American heavy-duty truck market declined,” said Mark Smith, Cummins chief financial officer during an investor analyst conference call Tuesday. “Cash generation has been and will continue to be a focus as we enter 2025, enabling us to continue investing in new products for new and existing markets, returning cash to shareholders,and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Last May, we laid out our updated financial targets through 2030. Our strong performance in 2024 represented encouraging progress towards those targets. And despite a relatively flat revenue forecast and expected weakness in North American heavy-duty trucks, we expect to further improve profitability and cash flow in 2025.”