Superintendent Gary Weber lays out the administration’s recommendations regarding school closure during an October hearing at Warren Area High School.

All is calm. All is bright.

Those lyrics are synonymous with the sentiments of many residents in this region when it comes to preparing for the Christmas celebration. But it’s nowhere near as cheery when considering a new year that will be filled with important and urgent decisions.

Do not be fooled by the sounds in the distance that could be jingle bells. Those are more likely to be alarm sirens signaling the need for adjustments that are neither popular nor comforting.

But they are necessary.

Though separated by a state line, both Chautauqua and Warren counties have significant choices ahead once 2025 arrives. All are a product of delaying the inevitable.

For years, elected leaders have tried to assure us that things are getting better even though too many tax bases have been shrinking due to a consistent population drain. In Chautauqua County, the population went from a high of 147,854 to 124,438 — a loss of 16% over a 54-year span. In addition, its poverty rate is 17.6% — higher than the national and state average. Neighboring Warren County went from 48,500 to 37,326 during that same period — a much more dramatic decrease of 23.7%. Its poverty rate is 11.4%.

These declines have led to what appears to be a day of reckoning. With funds drying up, here are the major dilemmas facing area communities starting in January.

— Potential school closings in Warren County — It has been an emotional 18 months regarding plans to consolidate high schools. Currently, the school board is looking to close locations in Youngsville and Sheffield. Those currently attending Sheffield would then attend Warren Area High School with Youngsville students attending Eisenhower.

Enrollment data alone backs the downsizing. In 1980, 8,876 students were part of the Warren County School District. That number fell to 6,548 by 2000 and under 5,000 in 2010. The most recent data — the 2023-24 school year — shows a total 3,860 students — 1,953 in elementary and 1,907 in secondary.

Despite concerns from parents and residents, especially those in Youngsville and Sheffield, district officials are trying to put the best spin possible on future changes. Savings from the mergers include $794,298 for the 2025-2026 school year by closing Sheffield and an additional $1.115 million by merging Youngsville into Eisenhower.

“Consolidation offers an alternative path,” Superintendent Gary Weber said in October while noting the plan is “addressing financial realities.”

Warren’s school board meets again on Jan. 13.

— Struggling budgets — Last weekend, the city of Dunkirk in northern Chautauqua County did what many would have considered unthinkable. Council approved an 84% tax increase for property owners.

What is most disappointing about the process was the constant lack of urgency. City leaders knew they were facing financial difficulties for nine months. They did little to nothing to address them.

First-year Mayor Kate Wdowiaz considers herself responsible for putting forth a balanced budget. All indications from disgruntled residents and businesses that are stuck with the sticker shock indicate her efforts were far from enough. Obviously, there were few reductions made in the expense lines of the $28 million plan.

Even more ominous is that city leaders continue to look for more revenue opportunities for 2026. That is one more reckless idea. New York is notorious for its high taxes and fees.

If Dunkirk thinks it can squeeze more out of its citizens and industry, it could lead to a greater exodus and less investment in its future.

Nearby Fredonia is facing a similar plight. Trustees last week disclosed the village will run out of money — and appears to be heading down the same path as Dunkirk. This has led to talks of mergers between the village and city police and fire departments.

That is long overdue. Previous merger attempts were stifled in 2006 due to stubborn attitudes and a sense of pride that can no longer be tolerated, especially when both communities have empty pockets.

— Warning signals — The county’s largest municipality, Jamestown, faces fiscal jail like its north-county neighbors in the coming months. Despite approving a spending plan with 3.6% tax increase, council may be in for a rude awakening.

Mayor Kim Ecklund voiced her concerns recently, stating fellow Republicans are failing residents in the future. “While I do not wish to impose tax increases, the reality is that the city will be faced with even tougher decisions in the coming years,” she said in a statement earlier this month. “We cannot keep postponing these tough choices. Right now, we are applying a temporary fix to a much deeper issue, and it is time to face these challenges directly to prevent further escalation.”

Dunkirk and Fredonia are living that reality at the moment. Jamestown is heading down the same path.

— Christmas coal — This corner still has trouble accepting what Chautauqua County legislators did in February by approving a 64% increase for themselves starting in 2026. When you consider the financial difficulty being faced by some of the largest municipalities in this region and the lack of attention to these issues by this body, how do elected officials justify such a selfish and greedy action?

With non-profit agencies across the area noting a growing need in our communities due to inflation and economic disparity, residents here have voiced a disdain for higher-priced local politicians who have consistently failed to change the fortunes of this area for another year.

As usual, those elected ignored public sentiment.

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Happy holidays.

John D’Agostino is editor of the Times Observer, The Post-Journal and OBSERVER in Dunkirk, N.Y. Send comments to jdagostino@observertoday.com or call 814-723-8200, ext. 253.